Presented at the AIC 1994 Asia-Pacific Telecommunications Forum
24th-25th October , China Telecoms Seminar 26th October
Shangri-La Hotel, Beijing, PRC
By the year 2000 China intends to extend PSTN capacity to over 100 million circuits, a cumulative average growth rate (CAGR) of 18 per cent to the end of the century and beyond, or the equivalent of replicating the current Hong Kong network three times annually, and then some. Although, contrary to some opinion, such growth rates are not exceptional (eg Hong Kong achieved higher growth rates during the late 1960s and 1970s) the absolute build out for the decade is without precedent, and it calls into question the resources China has at its disposal. Again, contrary to some opinion, I will argue that the major resource constraints are primarily not sources of capital but rather human and technological. In the paper that follows I will support this view by examining the MPT’s revenue base and opportunities for tariff reform.